Why Clinton is more electable:
In the mathematics of the electoral college, winning the big States matter.
Unless the Obama fever continues for the next nine months unabated, this will be a much tighter race than people think.
And this is what will happen in November:
- With Obama v. McCain in Ohio, the state will lean Republican
- McCain will also have a better than 50% chance of winning in Florida, after their voters are disenfranchised by the Obama camp's refusal to seat their delegates
- California, a traditional Democratic stronghold, will come into play if Obama is the candidate. A significant break of the Latino voters to McCain could force significant resources to be deployed; this trend will occur nationally
- In a general election Obama will have no chance in Texas; Clinton, although unlikely to win, could force McCain to spend resources there.
- The States where Obama swept Clinton, except for those with significant liberal leaning (safe Democratic states) voters and large black voting blocks, will be won by the Republican nominee.
- Indiana, where the Democrats have a 50-50 chance will break to McCain if Obama is the nominee
- Pennsylvania, where the Democrats had a better than 50% chance to win would come into play.
The biggest challenge is that the large metropolitan areas that have traditionally been the Democratic strongholds would become competitive as a result of an Obama candidacy.
There may be a net sixy electoral vote swing in favor of McCain if Barack Obama is the nominee, simply because of the demographic dynamics. Obama can get 263 electoral votes, but Hillary has a chance of capturing 326.
Had the Democratic Primaries been structured like the Republicans with winner take all, Clinton would be ahead (including the counts for FL and MI delegates and all super delegates) in the delegate count–1,680 to 1,527.
If the delegates were distributed like the general election electoral votes, she would still be ahead 201 - 194, with several big states in which she is competitive coming up.
Perhaps the two candidates should agree now that all Super Delegates simply vote as a block in accordance with the State that they represent (and the DC delegates in proportion to the popular vote); Michigan and Florida delegates would be tabulated with the undecided in Michigan going to Obama and all the non-Clinton votes going to Obama in Florida.
Whatever happens, let's not demonize the other side for playing politics (after all, this IS politics).
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