trending into tomorrow

At the moment, Blogs and RSS are all the rage. To me, The blog is tired and I hardly even read them any more. I find that I go to more of the main source sites now. As the blogs are just a build-up of unoriginal content produced by someone else. (Unless it's a producer or artist blog where the blogger uses it to showcase their own works)

Forums - There are so many forums and unless you have a marketing skill and 20 friends willing to post as much as they can to fill it and keep it active, people rarely join anything newly opened.

Peer to Peer community sites - A lot of work and to be honest, they are cool until the next place opens. Friendster, myspace, dudesnude, gay.com - they open, they do well, people move on. (could be said about a lot of things though)

VOD being the main monster kicking its head up into the air - even that is slowly setting itself into the world of - I already know I can go here, to this theater set up and find all the videos I need. Why venture out to another page with the same shit.

So my quest starts in looking for the little programs in the beta stage that look like something that could honestly be the next trend.

Your thoughts?

Well im not sure about the 'next' trend but i see a lot of stuff happening where we [the industry] is going to start heading backwards to more profitable times.

VOD for example is taking a HUGE chunk out of the recurring membership billing model, which in turn means that programs paying out huge PPS figures are going to start dropping like flies to the revshare model over the next 12-24 months or, alternately, changing their billing model completely to more of a 'per scene' or 'per download' business model.

I also wouldnt say that VOD is dying yet, in fact i see a lot of growth in the next few years for the VOD business model, especially as more of these companies start fighting to get 'exclusives' which in all reality, are going to be what makes the surfer decide to choose MaleFlixxx over AEBN or AEBN over HotMovies for example.

The VOD company that can get the most 'exclusive' studios in the next 12-18 months, i really feel are going to be on top for years to come, especially if these studios keep releasing titles like they have been doing the last couple of years.

Anyway, back to my original statement, i think we're going to see a reversal in the industry shortly, purely because profit margins are falling and companies arent going to be able to keep paying $45+ for a trial signup where the member cancels almost immediately, in fact, there are several programs beta-testing the old skool PPC business model of paying out $0.05 per raw click right now and im hoping to see this business model make a huge comeback because it isnt only 'fair' to the program owners but also the affiliate who will end up getting paid on EVERY click they send to a sponsor, not just the ones that 'convert'.

Regards,

Lee

I think that VOD is a market that was simply underserved for a long time. I think they'll grow quickly to the point where everyone who likes to buy that way is on, and then they'll grow organically.
On the other side you've got programs like videobox.com that sell bulk access to DVDs with no DRM. That's going to appeal to the opposite kind of customer. There are more companies coming up with that model.

The next trend should be companies offering branded P2P ready video clips so that webmasters can fill the P2P networks where users are getting free porn with content meant to pull them to the paysites through the affiliate sites. Only by getting webmasters involved will they be able to distribute enough video clips to make it nearly impossible to find real stolen porn. This hasn't happened yet, but it should.