Its That Time Of Year Again... Where Are We Heading As An Industry?

I usually post one of these threads towards the end of year asking where everyone thought the adult industry was headed in the coming 12 months so here is this years thread :)

As an industry, where do you see us trending over the next year, will we see new technologies being embraced, new niches or new types of content?

Do you see us heading the way of consolidation as an industry or do you think we are going to see further growth?

Your thoughts, what do you expect to happen to the online adult industry over the coming 12 months?

Regards,

Lee

I see a trend towards more pushing of the envelope, more battles with 'authorities' as the newer webmasters challenge conventional wisdom. Not always a bad thing, but a lot is going to depend on the upcoming election, and how much weight the religious zealots still have.

New technology is always being embraced, but I think we rush in to using it, rather than sitting back and seeing how applicable it can be to our unique market. Plus with the economy and all, who knows, it could be a boon or a bust, depending on which camp you are in.

I think with the increase in the 'nasty' factor, that the industry will splinter more, and that rather than doing business many will be too busy battling for perceived dominence.

just my pessimistic view, I need more coffee

Ian

My predictions:

Continued Decline in DVD sales

Increase in VOD and Streaming as a content delivery system

Waning of the Affiliate model and greater use of purchased traffic

Technology used to reduce piracy and copyright violations on the web

Continued aggregation within the adult industry; small companies will continue to disappear and be absorbed by larger companies with access to professional staff

Resource joining to stop file sharing and piracy websites. I don't see a unified effort in 2008 but I think their will be a gathering of resources and the beginning of unification against that problem.

Decrease in trade show attendance as more and more shows fight for fewer dollars. As the value of attendance drops, companies will reallocate their marketing funds.

Decrease in webmaster board participation

Continued gentrification of the industry

I see the following:

VOD continuing to increase marketshare, beginning to severely impact sales at some membership-based sites. Studios/content producers, not realizing the VOD model as run by the major players is not sustainable for content producers, continue to make the VOD companies richer while devaluing their own product.

DVD sales for major studios decreasing; continued difficulty with new producers in getting product distributed or to market; consolidation in the marketplace with a few major players buying up a ton of DVD studios, but an overall stability in total number of DVD units sold

smaller membership-based websites being acquired (either purchase or partnership) by larger affiliate programs.

Continued consolidation in the industry, and continued growth for larger players with high quality product.

Some smaller,shadier players being squeezed out by increased inspections, increased regulatory requirements, and karma coming back at them

Less industry credibility placed on a few high-power players and more industrywide cooperation and attention to shady practices.