Is porn DVD really on it's way out?

[Squirt]

I've been hearing for YEARS that DVD is on it's way out and VOD will take over! Is it true?

On the flip side the DVD distributors are telling me sales are great. Others are telling me that online porn and DVD are two different markets. What's your input on this?

[desslock]

Not there yet! But maybe soon. For example, I've read that you Australians are behind in customer broadband access (compared to other countries) because your government cannot figure out how to privatize Telstra.... In the US, our mid 1990's era telecom laws are inadequate for building broadband internet competitively to the masses.

Incidentilly, that is one reason I oppose the cunningly named network neutrality. [another cunning term: "family values"]

Network neutrality intends to restrict ways in which telecom companies can charge for services, all in the name of making it "fair." The end result of that is that they will not be able to build future broadband networks ten or twenty years from now that would vastly improve it to the point that we are in an IP high speed world for everything.

If companies can't risk some money on a venture, and receive an acceptable profit, they aren't going to wager.

But that's an aside :high: Hopefully more broadband will be built over the next ten years. But if price regulation aka Network Neutrality passes in a future Congress, then it will take a lot longer, and we'll still be forced to buy those dumb DVDs.

Steve

[gaybucks_chip]

I respectfully disagree on the net neutrality issue. The "preferential treatment" scam is just an anticompetitive move on the part of the major transit suppliers so they can restrict competition and provide their own (overpriced) services and extort a cut from those who are already charging the recipients of services (i.e., membership website owners) but are not owned by the major transit provider.

There is still plenty of money to be made on providing transit. Customers on the receiving end (those viewing sites and reading email) pay for transit, and customers on the supply end (those with webservers, mail servers etc) *also* pay for transit. The transit providers pay each other (or barter) for peering arrangements. So the major transit providers are making money on both ends already. And as bandwidth needs increase, such as for video services, so do the revenues. Plenty of money to build out new services. It's worked for over 12 years since the Net became commercial in 1994 at a time when the "backbones" were mostly T-1 and T-3 lines and are now nearly 100% fiber. It will continue to work if net neutrality is imposed.

The loss of net neutrality will near-eliminate the level playing field that now exists where small providers, small webmasters, individual blog owners, can all know that their content can be viewed by anyone with a Net connection. You can bet that a "decrease in priority" of traffic from those who refuse to be extorted will eventually become an "elimination of service" to those same folks.

Now... about physical DVDs: Pretty much everyone I know says the physical product will eventually die out or become a tiny fraction of sales. Most people are saying 3-5 years, and the smart distributors are already starting to line up their ducks to be involved in the electronic download shift. Of course, widespread acceptance of Blu-Ray or HD-DVD may slow the demise of digital delivery for a while, until enormous bandwidth is available to the majority of homes, but I think it's a near certainty that physical sales will eventually slow to a trickle, just as physical CD sales have slowed drastically other than through chains like Wal-Mart.

Most of the distributors are reporting that small bricks-and-mortar adult stores are struggling badly. Many have gone out of business or been acquired by one of several mega-chains of 100+ stores. And I think that's just an early sign of what's to come. At the moment, online retailers of physical product are growing in the marketplace, but that, too, is probably a limited life business.

Of course there will always be some people that want to own something physical, which is why books and magazines still sell... but I do think that any company producing DVDs that isn't thinking ahead to the age of digital delivery will probably not be happy in a few years.

[chadknowslaw]

Here is what I want as a consumer:


I want to be able to select a movie to watch without leaving my house. I don't want to have to physically go to a store to find what I want. I also want to see some reviews and previews before I decide.

Then, I want to be able to view that movie within minutes of making my selection.

I also want to store that movie so that I can watch it again.

Also, I want to take that stored movie to my friend's house and watch it on HIS system with no loss in quality.



Basically, I want nearly instantaneous delivery to a Nano-like device that is portable and can store huge amounts of data.

Once I [the consumer] can do all of those things, I don't see the store-bought DVD or DVD-like solution being attractive enough to survive. The convenience of at-home selection with instant downloads would be too much for the DVD to survive. No more replication and packaging expense, no more shipping and inventory expenses, no more need for bricks and mortar buildings with rent and property taxes and employees and restrictive zoning and restrictive hours of operation and limited shelf space.

Once download times can be sped up, storage size minimized and the consumer educated to find the download sites, I think the pre-packaged video will die out. I give it 10 years.

[Squirt]

A lot of great input so far guys thanks for your comments.

I agree that speed of download is an issue for DVD quality content. I also agree that when things can be downloaded quickly, and put on a portable device that can hold lots of data, that less people will buy DVD's. I also agree that people want to buy something tangeable that they can hold onto, like they still do books, magazines, etc.

I wonder if VOD will take the place of DVD distributors online. I've been told they are a different customer. Some customers like to have a DVD from the studio, in had, DVD cover and all... and pop it inot the DVD on the TV to jack off.

Do you think VOD customers are different then DVD customers? Do you think VOD will take the place of DVD in the short term or long term?

[robin]

Until your average porn consumer can sit down at their couch to watch and not have to hunch over their itty bitty monitor and struggle with links, media players and god knows what else, dvds will still have a place.

Moreover, there's still a large population who would rather have a physical copy of their porn. Just like books, mags, and cds...They're all tangible and easy to use.

$0.02

[basschick]

i definitely think VOD customers are different customers than DVD buyers. while it is possible that being able to fully download and save entire DVD's including the extras would hurt DVD sales, a lot of people i know - whether porn or mainstream movie watchers - like having a physical thing in their hands. i doubt that is going to go away.

[gaybucks_chip]

There's one other factor. Luddites.

A LOT of our customers are guys in their 50s to 80s who either don't have a clue how to access the Internet, don't have Internet service at their homes (library use only), or are afraid to make any sort of online purchase, either for fear of being tracked, or for fear of their credit card info being stolen / their being rebilled and not being able to cancel / etc. A lot of these guys only got a DVD player a year or two ago, and we still have a few who are annoyed we no longer offer VHS versions of our product.

Until those people either die or become computer literate and have access, there will continue to be at least some market for physical product. And of course, as others have said, there's also that segment that just wants a physical product.

[basschick]

good point, chip. i know a lot of people - and some are not older - who can't figure out how to do anything more complicated than check their email, which someone taught them to do in a very step by step fashion. i have friends in their early 30s who can't even send an attachment but they DO like to watch porn although they tend to watch DVDs since even filling out a form when online throws them - funny thing, they don't seem to have problems with forms when they're on paper. go figure!

[JayDeeZee]

There are so many good points in this thread.

Another factor to look at, is the direction that the mainstream market is going. Recently BlockBuster stopped charging late fees. Why did they do this? They had to change their business model in order to compete with the insurgence of VOD, PVR and movie downloading.

[allboysvideo]

This is a very interesting post...I've also heard that DVD wholesale distribution is becoming a thing of the past and in a few years, it will be as slow as magazine distribution/sales

Here is my thought on the situation. Its true that DVDs wholesale sales have decreased over the years. Larger studios are not gaining the sales they have seen in the 80's and the 90's...since the onset of website memberships and online retail stores have increased and many more studios producing DVDs at a cheaper price has effect the market. Also so many individuals are staying home and watching "porn" on their computers or ordering the DVD direct online retail sites. Many people still enjoy ordering and receiving a DVD, you can watch it over and over again, its better quality, you can watch it on any TV you like as well as your computer. The problem with membership sites and VOD's, the quality is not the greatest and if you don't have a very good computer and a good internet service provider (DSL, Cable, T1) then you're getting slow service, you have to watch your favorite porn only at the computer on a small screen that may freeze, if you enlarge the picture, then the quality gets worse and the image is blurry and pixilated due to the compression of the video.

Overall, having the DVD is the best. Many men do not want to spend money and give their credit card information to a membership site. Some men are not the computer savvy and still rely on having the DVD, place it into their DVD player and watch it like they have for years. Many men are too cheap to purchase DVDs or purchase a membership so they like to go into the adult retail store and rent the DVDs. They can rent a DVD for $3.00- $4.00 per day and its cheaper then purchasing the video.

As for the retail stores, the stores are feeling the pinch in sales and foot traffic due to online sites that sell DVDs at a reasonable cost. Many guys surf the net and find thier favorite porn video selling at least $10-$15 cheaper then going to a retail store. Many stores mark-up the price so the DVDs are not affordable (which is not their fault, they need to charge more due to the rent they are paying for the space). Its very expensive to own or rent an adult video store. Most adult stores are not welcome in the communities they do business so the community changes zoning laws and the adult store needs to move there location or simply close down. If you do find an adult store, most of these stores are in the "seedy" part of town or to far to drive. In the larger cities like New York, Miami, Los Angeles, you can find an adult store nearby...however rural america and many parts of the outside a rural area...its very difficult to find an adult store so the consumer must get their porn online.

Too stay active and alive and in this business for many years and to be sucessful, a production studio just can't survive anymore with producing just a few DVDs per year or just survive with having one label. In my opinion, a production studio has to have at least 2 DVD labels and produce several DVD videos and release at least 2 videos per month, you need to be active with your distributor, have your own online retail site and sell your own DVDs and others DVDs from other producers, be active or partner up with webmasters and produce your own membership sites and look for ways to increase business and experiment with new technology.

We have been doing all this....as for the future I think that the stores and distribution will continue to decline, but it will take a very long time...more and more people are looking for "porn" via thier computer. There will be a new technology that people will be able to select there favorite porn DVD and be able to download the video onto there hard-drive and burn the movie onto a DVD right from there home computer...the consumer will no longer have to travel to there local adult video store, they will be able to download a great quality DVD! The downloads will be affordable! Everyone will have access to the DVDs! (Adult will have access)...no membership monthly payments, no pay-per-minuete!!!

Just my 2 cents........

[XXXWriterDude]

I think there will always be people who want DVD product, myself included. I really don't think that some form of physical product can or will be replaced completely for some time to come. Maybe not so much in porn, but for a lot of people, the packaging is part of the whole experience.

[jIgG]

I hope so
$60 for a DVD with photoshoped dicks on the cover is insane

[Xstr8guy]

I hope so
$60 for a DVD with photoshoped dicks on the cover is insane

Lol, I know EXACTLY who you are talking about. We've had this discussion before.

[citiboyz]

It's all about "delivery method" and how the consumer wants his porn delivered to him. Whatever method he wants is what we as producers need to supply. Right now, we're seeing strong DVD sales. In fact, I think we just shipped our 100,000th DVD this month, but we're moving to other delivery platforms as the demand moves, like VOD. I agree that DVD will fall off as VOD improves quality, and I agree with Chad that some day we'll have everything delivered right to our entertainment center via fiber cable or something.