What's to come of our future?

[PFLJayden]

After seeing Luke's video post lately, it got me to wondering...

All over the boards I see everyone talking about their sales being so far up, better than ever, etc. I'm not so sure that I believe that.
I've spoken to some of the big players who have been around for years and they've even said that things are bad.
Our sales are stable.

I've found that with today's industrial economy you cannot stop working, stop updating, marketing, etc. to continue to strive.
I believe it's due to all of the free porn out on the internet. Why pay when you can get it for free?

Just since January I've seen companies close, expand, start up and then close, shut down sites, etc.

It does worry me. I think it worries many of us.

Where do you think we will be in 5-10 years? Do you think that things will get better? Worse? Eventually we're out?
What are your thoughts?

We truly are in fear over here, we're above stable, but from what I've seen - anything can happen at any time it seems.

It does worry me a tad because I'm seeing people fail and fall.

What are your thoughts on this subject?

[Mansized]

I honestly think the "golden days" of porn (for most..not all) is behind us. The main reason for this is that there is so much free porn and always will be. Plus, there are so many ways now that people have figured out how to get porn without a membership for the stuff they would have paid for in the past..torrents, etc.

That's not to say people cannot make a decent living from porn, but it will be those with DEEP pockets that survive and thrive! I think the novelty of the net and PORN..greatly hung hunky men doing anything and everything available for you to download for a fee, is over. Now it will turn to the hard core advocate and/or junkie or the newbies that haven't figured out how to get the "freebies".

And believe it or not..that's an optimistic view compared to some I know.

[HunkyLuke]

Yeah I agree that the golden days of porn are gone, but I do think that there is room for small players still...especially if they are able to fill a niche market and provide members with exclusive videos of exactly what they are looking for.

[monstahmikey]

Everyone says that porn is dieing and in particular DVD, however every year since we started in 2009 we have increased the amount we are shooting for clients. This year already we have almost doubled what we did last year so if things are bad that certainly isnt the case for us. In fact DVD orders are up also on last year (and everyone says DVDs are almost dead). Clients are still spending on original content and in fact spending more and more.

I think however, that the market is saturated with so many similar sites now some will of course die off. Just look at for example, amateur content, one person makes a site now everyone and his granny wants it, all that will happen is the market will become oversaturated again. Its the person with the original, unique idea that will survive and grow.

Anyway just my POV as a content producer.

[DonnyCyber]

I slightly disagree. I don't think the "golden era" of porn is dead and gone. I think its pretty basic and simple. People want porn, and they always will. I think sites have just lost their mid level consumers. Not because all the free porn that is out there. I think people would love it if they could buy from their favorite sites/programs. Instead of having to look for the free clips from the sites they like on the free tube sites that are more annoying then convenient. I feel like just comes down to people having tighter budgets then they used too. Porn is not a necessity for survival for people. Spending 15-30 bucks a month may not seem like much. But it ads up. Thats food, gas, a couple itunes tracks a month. And people in no way can get those items for free. But they know they can get the porn for free. But I think, If they could rationalize the idea of spending a monthly fee on a porn site. Then they would. People just have tight budgets right now. I have tons of friends who all have reoccurring charges to sites they love every month. But they all make good money and don't feel the pressure of needing that extra 30 bucks a month for other items. its really just a matter of people making less money then they used to. I know I haven't been in the biz as long as any of you. But thats what I seem to notice. So I guess thats just my opinion. I do understand the free porn costs the industry money. There is no disputing that. But the noticeable recession the world is in has played its part as well.

[RDude]

It's great to see so many different perspectives on this. I've been an affiliate since 2004 and I must agree that those 'golden eggs' were a lot more plentiful up until about 2008 for me. However, the 'slowdown' has really reared it's ugly head for me over the last 18 months.

That being said, I don't believe all is lost and must agree that being much more niche specific is the way to pick things up. I've already been doing that as an affiliate and have seen improvement. Albeit, it isn't a huge improvement in revenue, but like anything else in this business, things take time.

I've been wondering for some time now what was going to happen to 'generic fuck and suck gay porn'. The market is SO saturated with it and yes, now that people can get it for free, they do. Fetish has always done well for me and I think it's to time bump that niche up a whole lot more. The 'stranger' the better too

[StunnerJesse]

I think Panda/Penguin hurt A LOT of people. I think many people were already seeing a decline and that just sent them over the edge. I imagine it's kind of hard to remain optimistic when Google can just kill your productive traffic in one day. It used to be more subtle and isolated it seems (only happened to a few people and maybe was just a site or two that dropped)... then A LOT of people just had their traffic dry up seemingly over night.

I'll admit that I was more than happy when Jay offered to buy my sites and I was able to transition into a position at Stunner. Panda gave me a pounding (not the good kind we all enjoy) and things were so up and down that I didn't know if I'd be able to feed myself from month to month. It took lots of tight budgeting and caused a lot of anxiety, which of course caused my Crohn's to flare (our gut and mind is incredibly interconnected). Everything was great pre-Panda and I couldn't figure out how to climb my way back.

It does seem like some programs are trying to focus more on in-house traffic. I think part of that is they are not seeing the retention that they used to so the pressure of giving PPS to stay competitive makes them focus elsewhere. Our retention is excellent and we love our affiliates and traffic, but I also see where that may not necessarily be the same with all programs. If that sponsor isn't properly staffed they may very well dedicate more man hours to driving in-house traffic and less time putting out the tools affiliates need to send sales. No worries there with us ... I'm the one that adds tools to NATS!

I think there is a lot of fear right now, but if someone has survived the last few years they should keep going for as long as they can. Even with all of the things that can hurt sales, there is still a lot of money out there to be made.

I predict a lot more consolidation going on. The online porn industry is maturing. When the car was first introduced there were quickly something like 1,000 or 2,000 car companies. Eventually they consolidated into the few big companies we know today. I predict a lot of M&A activity over the next 5 or 10 years. It's what happens when most industries mature.

As for affiliate marketing, that is hard to say. From what I've seen on Facebook, a few very smart people in this industry that make A LOT of money by redirecting traffic to sponsors (meaning they use landers and send to sponsors...do not focus on building content sites) think that Google is trying to cut out the middle man. Whether that is true or not is still be determined, but people are going to have to get creative if Google tries to filter out all sites with affiliate links. If that happens there are ways around it, but it would require a lot of people re-building their sites from the ground up to trick the G.

Interesting times for sure.

[sc32803]

Where will we be in 5 years? I think I know the answer:

Prediction # 1: There will be a great consolidation in the gay porn industry. The big players will only remain big by purchasing the smaller players. And I think we'll see many smaller players gladly sell to the big guys because they can no longer make a decent living. Unknown is whether or not the smaller guys sell out completely or will they go on the payroll of the big players.

Then once the consolidation occurs...

Prediction # 2: Affiliate programs will go away as we know them. The big players will have enough traffic that they will not need individual bloggers promoting them. If they need to advertise they will just buy ads from the most popular bloggers. Or they will form partnerships with the big established bloggers.

Prediction # 3: It will become virtually impossible for someone to break into the biz with a small site. Once the consolidation occurs, talent fees will skyrocket, making it difficult or impossible for someone new to break in unless they have deep pockets. We're already seeing this now with some producers offering thousands of dollars to male models, even for solo scenes. The days of hiring men for a couple hundred dollars will be a thing of the past, if they're not already.

Sorry if these are all depressing, but I truly think this is the direction we're headed in. Check back here in 5 years to see if I'm right!

[StunnerJesse]

Prediction # 3: It will become virtually impossible for someone to break into the biz with a small site. Once the consolidation occurs, talent fees will skyrocket, making it difficult or impossible for someone new to break in unless they have deep pockets. We're already seeing this now with some producers offering thousands of dollars to male models, even for solo scenes. The days of hiring men for a couple hundred dollars will be a thing of the past, if they're not already.

I could see everything happening except this part. No shortage of models willing to do a solo for $200 and a duo for $600.

There are some studios that pay in the thousands but I wonder why because I rarely see but a small % of their models being worth it.

An exclusive contract though is a bit different.

[DonnyCyber]

An exclusive contract though is a bit different.

Yea, But what does Exclusive even mean now-a-days? I feel like it used to mean that a model can only be seen on that one particular site. now i feel it implies that a scene can only be seen on a certain site. off the top of my head. It only seems like NDS keeps their models exclusive. (Tho I may be wrong).

But im branching from the point. I really dont think any studios are paying any models in the thousands per scene. Not unless its for something major or for a major model. i dont see any first timers making that kinda cash.

[longboardjim]

just know your all going to die and wind up in a "Box" buried somewhere! - LOL

videoboxrdc.jpg

alot of good "future" predictions here but then who can really "predict" the future? ... I never in my wildest dreams thought that "typing 101" in my 7th grade would prepare me for a future of keboards/pads/etc. - LOL

- jim

[PFLJayden]

Everyone says that porn is dieing and in particular DVD, however every year since we started in 2009 we have increased the amount we are shooting for clients. This year already we have almost doubled what we did last year so if things are bad that certainly isnt the case for us. In fact DVD orders are up also on last year (and everyone says DVDs are almost dead). Clients are still spending on original content and in fact spending more and more.

I think however, that the market is saturated with so many similar sites now some will of course die off. Just look at for example, amateur content, one person makes a site now everyone and his granny wants it, all that will happen is the market will become oversaturated again. Its the person with the original, unique idea that will survive and grow.

Anyway just my POV as a content producer.

I am seeing more producers or studios buying / producing content just to stay afloat and continue going. I know of one studio that we work very closely with that was releasing one new movie bi-weekly. Now they are doing two per week to stay afloat.
DVD Days, yes I do believe they are dead. Everyone will still buy, but that's few and in between. I can say that because we did it. Finally, it became too much in updating the site, we offered free shipping, discounts, etc. By the time it was all done with, it literally became a waste of time and stopped selling DVDs. The store is shut down and everything.

Our paysites are doing great. I would say 80% of them rebill longer than 6 months. We have 11 that I know of (just off the top of my head) who have been rebilling since the first site launched in 2006. Our cheap trials, they don't convert much.

The key in paysites these days is to stick with a niche, don't move off it, update consistently and frequently with that niche video. Offer immediate possible support. Market Market Market. Running a paysite is almost a full-time job but we're now automated with CMS on our sites. We worry about editing / encoding, marketing on tubes, and affiliate email updates. We did that to cut our work load down to focus on our mainstream stuff.

It is going down. I see it. Others see it.

Donny, your POV on the tubes is outrageous.
I'll be 100% straight up... I talked to 12 of my friends. One is 35. All have said that they have never in their life paid for porn. They go to tubes, and they get it free there. One said he spends five minutes on a tube and hasn't spent a thing. Two of my other friends laughed at me and said, "Shit, who pays for porn?" It's true.
I am one of those who have never paid for porn. I can't get off to our stuff. I go to tubes to get off. Never have I bought but once when I was 18, that was a membership to Badpuppy. During my first month with Badpuppy, I found tubes. I cancelled my rebilling membership and stuck with tubes.

The tube3s... You go there, BOOM! Lengthy videos. You peek at a couple, your cock is hard, you click through. When I do it, I type in a word I like (Bareback) and then I can click on "Longest" and I go from there. Again, 5 minutes - I'm done.

[conran]

I think everyone is being a little too defeatist.

Pirates are having a hard time, more than ever. I've just read about Google starting to be proactive about piracy in search results.

And, as others (who have relied for years on crappy content and easy money) leave the business, that means more traffic for those sticking around and working just a little harder.

I think people need to quit whining about it and do things differently. Explain to surfers why buying a membership is better than downloading a pirate movie (safety, quality, access to additional content, legality, community...)

There are a lot of reasons why someone might buy a membership. Sponsors need to try harder and stop sticking to the old business models. Affiliates need to change and start promoting content in different ways.

One of the biggest problems is the increase in mobile tech and internet TV - sites are only JUST catching up with mobile visitors despite it being the fastest growing internet access method, and I have yet to find a sponsor providing video content for internet TV users despite last year seeing the fastest sales number for the tech since its development.

Tubes with lengthy content are a problem, granted. But the quality is never matched.

[Mansized]

I think everyone is being a little too defeatist.

I think people need to quit whining about it and do things differently. Explain to surfers why buying a membership is better than downloading a pirate movie (safety, quality, access to additional content, legality, community...)

I am curious is to how you would word a statement combining the factors you mention in your original post to publish on someone's website. Please realize I am not trying to pick on you, I'm just trying to see a statement that would really slam home the intent behind the message and make it stick in the "proposed buyer's" mind.

[conran]

I'm not suggesting that you need to have a statement, although you could. There are other ways to plant the seeds there.

It depends what style of blog you have. But those who are open about selling memberships have a lot of power here. If you run a regular blog and occasionally have sponsor content, and you're open about that as an income to keep the blog going, you could get away with a statement about why paying for it is better.

If you run a blog just to present porn to surfers, you could just stick an anti-piracy banner up. But it would possibly be more effective to just mention it occasionally in posts too. I run several blogs with a character or two presenting the content, and I have explained in posts occasionally why I pay for a membership to that site.

For instance, I could occasionally mention how crap the quality is of tube videos. Maybe relay a short experience of someone downloading something illegally and ending up with a trojan. For a specific site I could say that nothing beats having access to all those hundreds of videos on the site.

One of the biggest things I have found in blogging is that affiliates rarely sell the site, they sell the scene - if they bother to actually sell it at all.

People are not using the ammunition they have. If an adult site has over 600 videos, tell the potential buyer that in as many posts as you can. If they have exclusive models, mention them. If they do something that you won't find anywhere else, talk about that too.

People generally only pay attention to what the guys in the video are doing - which is so predictable sometimes it's almost not worth doing. But there is a lot of opportunity to point out the reasons to be a member of the site without shoving it down the readers throat.

I don't want to seem condescending, but I'll do an example here, from a fictitious scene, just to show how I think affiliates should be promoting...

"***** is back again on the ***** site, and after seeing him in his last video where he sucked cock for the first time I knew the dude would return for more. I was totally addicted to that scene for a bout a week, even watching it on my phone on a break at work and jerking a load out to it in the restroom.

Warning - don't forget the volume button!

I think a lot of you are already members of the site, but if you've never checked it out before, that's what they do there - they convince straight guys that cock isn't that bad after all, and so many of them really get into it once they've tried it.

So I have to say first of all that ****** actually reminds me a little of ******** too. I remember when he started out in a solo jerk off video and then went on to do a whole lot more with other performers. He's now appeared in twenty hardcore videos since then, so I think it's fair to say he's converted to cock!

Now ****** is back, what's he willing to try? Well, I guess it depends how much he's getting paid, but I don't think it's entirely about the money. The guy is hard as steel all the way through as he gets fucked for the first time!

I've watched a lot of their guys being broken in over the last few months, going back through the archives to see how they started out, and although all of them really get into it, you can see that ****** is totally getting off on having his ass slammed by another dude. ****** does a great job of it too, but then who else could they have chosen to break in a new guy? This hunk has slammed over fifty noobs on the site (jealous!) and pretty much converted them all with his big dick.

****** isn't any different in that regard. After sucking ***** and taking a hard butt fuck the dude shoots a massive load all over himself. ****** loved tapping that virgin ass too judging by the jizz he dumps over his buddy.

Out of the hundreds of videos there this one has to be a new fave for me. That says a lot too, because they have over 600 shoots now. I can't jerk off to all of them, especially with a new one added every week - but I can try! "

And yes, it definitely beats 30 second tube clips with grainy action. I don't care if you think you can shoot a load to a tube scene, you're not getting what I'm getting!

That's just a quick example of how I think a scene should be presented. It has some personality to it, I mention the number of videos, I mention the mobile streaming, I mention the previous action from the guy, I give reasons as to why the site is worth the money, instead of just saying "this guy sucks that guy, that guy fucks this guy, they both shoot their loads, the end. Now please buy a membership!"

There are two uses for text. First of all you need it for SEO purposes. Secondly there are actually guys who read it. Those who read it already have an interest in the content - you've won half the sales battle, they are your priority. If you imagine that your blog is a shop, the images are the window dressing. You could have someone walk past and think something looks nice, but they're just interested in how pretty it is. The ones who walk in and investigate are further along in their decision to buy. The people reading your text are more willing and open to the idea of buying than those who are just browsing. They are the people you are selling to, and that is why the text has to offer the suggestive triggers and information.

While tubes and piracy are still a problem, affiliates are not exactly thinking logically in a lot of cases either. It's just my opinion, but I can guarantee that those who are successful in affiliate sales actually sell the sites and not just the scene.