2005 - The Year That Will Be

[Lee]

Now we're rapidly approaching the New Year i figured it was time for us to have our annual 'what will the new year bring' thread

As predicted last year around the same time, 2004 did in fact bring many changes and also many of the same old things, reality sites continued to be the craze and micro billing was one of the many 'buzz words' of the industry.

So where do you think we will be going on 2005 and, is 2005 going to have a positive or, negative effect on the industry overall?

My personal feelings are that we will start to see a 'bak to basics' approach by many of the large sponsors, opting to drop the reality style paysites and concentrate on more cookie cutter themed sites.

I also think we are going to see many more copanies broadening their horizons in 2005 with many of them branching out into alternate aspects of the adult industry from going offline into bricks and mortar stores though to taking the direction of their adult business to a more 'mainstream' marketplace.

So what are you folks thinking the New Year is going to bring?

Regards,

Lee

[randy]

Very interesting Lee,

One of the things I enjoy about this industry is the wide difference in opinions and how different people look at business. I am sure this thread will get as many different answers as there are fish in the sea.

I agree that 2005 will be a huge year of change in the industry and will have a global effect on porn and how and why people purchase and what they are looking for. Although pornography may be as old as the first caveman sketching boobs on a cave wall with some charcoal our online segment of the industry is stilll brand new. A tiny baby that is just really emerging. Our industry is changing every day and forces itself with new technology to be on the for front of "in demand" entertainment.

We are growing up a whole new age of consumers. With every new generation their demads change and their interests change.

While I respect Lee's opinion I do not agree. Sorry Lee!

I agree biz will probably focus on a more "back to basics" approach from some of the sites that are out there but I do think reality sites will be with us for awhile, (Just look at how many are still on television after 12 years of the launch of MTV's Real World. That means their are 12 year olds who have never had a life of television without Reality programs. They are here to stay. I do believe adult reality programs are here to stay but they will evolve, get much better and like any thing become more expensive to produce. Its the way nature and the business world weed out the unfit.

Now I dont even own a reality site........yet. So I am only going on what I have observed and noticed and know about the world of business and what success people have had in the past.

As far as back to basics I dont think standard, old, dated 3 page tours have anything to do with back to basics.

Black and white television was great in 1964 but who the hell wants to look at it now. Our industry moves even faster then that. Most people update their laptops and PC's more than any other electronic in the house and withthat their attention span to old images and old websites deiminish.

I guess that is what I am getting at when I say look at this newer generation. We as adult webmasters "and of course from another generation" tend to want to make everything so simple when the latest emerging consumers think most adult sites are laughable at how basic they can be and how old the content is. Remember people these are the same consumers that use their parents credit cards, have had cell phones since they were 12 were raised in car seats and smoke free environments. Everything in their life has been graphics driven, clothes, magazines, CD,s ...everything so they are inclined to spend with what looks cool.

That is not to say you need to leave the older generations out of the loop when you are designing but you should also plan for the future.

When I thnk of "Back to Basics" I think of

1. Great customer service and creating an aura of "The customer is King." I think no matter how big your site is you need to let the surfer believe he has input and that he is important. Even in porn! Listen to their advice, answer their emails and engage them on the site.

2. Great and exclusive content! Your site needs to be like a magazine. Would you pay for a yearly subrscription to a magazine if the table of contents was always the same? Hell no! You expect to keep members and you offer them nothing new month after month? Like any biz you need to focus on what the surfer likes and always exceed their expectations.

I think Randy Blues success (And thats what I am basing this on)is not so much that it's a great site but that we stay true to what we started and listen to our customers. We have never stopped adding a new model or 2 videos a week since we started......Is it expensive...Yes...does it retain.....Hell yes. In other words its quality and it retains and just like any other biz if you have a unique product, you listen to your customers, and you always try to improve it you will make money.

Thats just my two cents worth.....

[randy]

One thing I think we're gonna see is a movement towards smaller, more low-fi sites that cost less to join.

I couldnt agree more with you Jason.....You included something I totally forgot to to mention and believe in!

[Harlan]

I agree with much of what has been posted here and Randy, i would like to expand your definition of back to basics to include
1) Tours that are 100% representative of what is inside the members'a area
2) Weekly updates of fresh, original content and not relying on
feeds and plug-ins to do it for you
3) Carefully chosen member's area that have features that appropriate to the type of site and not just there for filler (ie no ebony feeds in an asian twink site)

Jason, I think you made a very valid point saying "I also think that people will be getting away from "straight guy's first gay sex" reality sites to a more scripted action" though I would also refine that further to say that I do believe scripted versions will become more and more common as the norm - as opposed to the scripted versions out there masquerading as reality. Some of the "first time, reality sites" all link their backends together so the user sees the same models having their "first times" within a few clicks of the mouse.

Original content, consitently delivered on a weekly basis is where it is at for PrideBucks. Despite the geo-political changes, fortuantely hormones are decidely non-partison but the government is not. The "Bush-whacking" of America means those companies that were organized, operated like a business and did their homework on the legal front will continue to survive and flourish as long as they offer the consumer a good value for their buck!

[Chilihost]

I want to find the 2004 predictions thread and see what we said and what actually happened!

[cj.]

its going to be the biggest year yet!

and Lee, I think you hit the nail on the head for many companies throughout 2005:

I also think we are going to see many more copanies broadening their horizons in 2005 with many of them branching out into alternate aspects of the adult industry from going offline into bricks and mortar stores though to taking the direction of their adult business to a more 'mainstream' marketplace.

its also that magic 7 year point for a lot of us webmasters - if you believe in 7 year cycles and you started in 1998, this is your year ;-)

the mobile phone content industry is in about the same place as the internet was back then ...

i'm looking forward to 2005 - i might even make resolutions on new years ;-)

[Kewlaidkiddd]

I also think we are going to see many more copanies broadening their horizons in 2005 with many of them branching out into alternate aspects of the adult industry from going offline into bricks and mortar stores though to taking the direction of their adult business to a more 'mainstream' marketplace.

I also agree with this statement. I do know that our company plans on becomning more community oriented yet still keeping our porn element, but not making it our only purpose. I know myself personally, would like to become more involved with the adult and gay adult community.

I also on a similar note, since I have been with AEBN, have gained a large amount of knowlege and new respect for the porn industry and have learned that the people in the industry truly are stars and not just a group of perverted men and women who are in it to make a quick buck. There is a lot of dedication to this industry and it is up to us to continue to work together to make sure that we get our voices heard in this world.

It really touched me this year to hear so much about our industry in the news. Not necessarily the bad things such as the government watching us with a fine tooth comb or the HIV scare in Cali, but the nicer things like seeing Ron Jeremy on Surreal Life or hearing about Jenna Jameson writing a book. I myself am gay and seeing and hearing about straight people in the porn industry reaching mainstream made me feel great, and I would really like to see more of an influence on the mainstream media by the gay adult industry as well.

I think this year for us will bring lots of new changes. With other governments around the United States changing their views on the adult industry and gay community, I think it will influence our government greatly no matter who we have running the country, and I have nothing but a positive outlook for the year 2005.

I wish everyone the best of luck on their endeavors this next year and hope that all of our goals are reached by this time next year so that we can make even bigger plans for 2006.

[willwest]

Wow! I’m impressed by the range of qualified, professional, insightful observations and predictions.

In my opinion, our adult entertainment markets will continue to evolve based on technology advances, affordable access to that technology and trends in pop and niche cultures.

For example, 2005 will see even greater penetration of high speed Internet access, more sophisticated computer and digital recorder and camera products in peoples’ homes and offices. The 2004 trend of people spending more time and money using their computers than watching television entertainment will grow momentum in 2005.

This will likely encourage publications and use of even more entrepreneurial sites. Consumers will become even more equipped to continue shopping and exploring for adult entertainment choices suiting their curiosities and fantasies. Consumers will grow in their sophistication too though while staying with reliable sites offering best perceived value.

Wireless Broadband technologies and products will likely grow in popularity. It is puzzling what new impacts and challenges that will bring to adult site marketers and webmasters in the future.

Digital Rights Management (DRM) or some alternate will hopefully become more affordable and manageable for professional content producers and providers. As with the music industry, porn producers and distributors learned the high cost of piracy.

The huge popularity of legal and illegal file sharing sites and iPod for music lovers is big eye opener of things to come. Savvy young adult consumers want to download and burn DVDs of their favorite porn video scenes too. Unfortunatley they usually fall into the “want something for nothing” group, so it may not be a very profitable venture for porn yet.

Brand loyalty and perhaps niche loyalty will grow even more important for marketers in the vast sea of consumer choices. Strategies to retain site memberships and reduce churn will help successful sites grow even more successful. “Sticky” sites will continue to rise to the top of the pack.

As mentioned earlier, some sites might branch out into other aspects of adult entertainment while others rigorously stay focused on their successful specialties and passions. The one-stop-shopping marketing model applied to adult content e-commerce will be interesting to watch evolve though.

The understanding and application of selling to Baby Boomers vs. Gen X vs. Gen Y will grow even more important for sites targeting specific audiences. I am reminded of examples of stark communication style differences when I view younger generations use their computers, PDA's and cell phones.

As with other more mainstream music and movie entertainment businesses, I foresee more adult entertainment companies will eventually acquire and merge with others. These new conglomerates will likely be in more powerful high revenue positions to leverage and negotiate competitive, reliable merchant accounts or third party payment processor contracts. They will be able to afford more high powered attorneys and accountants too. I hope this does not happen soon however because when porn becomes too corporate it can lose its ingenuity.

Happy New Year!