Here's my thinking on this:

scenario 1: a member joins your site, then clicks the VOD upsell. He sees that the VOD site has all the same non-exclusive video selection as your paysite plus more. He does some quick math and realises that he can rebill on your site for $30/mo and get a new video every week that you chose as the update. Or he can spend $2.99 every week and get the same videos or other video that he choses from this VOD site.

scenario 2: a member joins your site, then clicks the exclusive site upsell. He sees that the exclusive site offers different videos. He does not think of cancelling the membership on your site because your site offers him different content all together.