I am sorry Dresslock but I'll disagree with you on the state of affairs up here in Canada.. to begin with the scandal involves about 250 million, of which about 100 million was supposedly funnelled to Liberal organizers and party officials, not to elected officials...

In addition whether it was 100million or 250million or not I think Martin can survive simply because while they may have pissed away that amount, they also eliminated a 60 odd billion dollar deficit by the Tories.. and no when a government gets elected up here it does not go to the middle.. Brian Mulroney proved that by totally fucking up this country, introducing american style politics that we abhor and which is one more reason why we have consistently had Liberal governments.

As to whether Harper & his ersatz republicans can claim office will have to be seen. We pride our national health, national education and as much as it sucks about the sponsorship scandal, we value that a whole lot more than we do punishing Martin. In addition the scandal was news during the last election as well, so its effect right now is not going to have any greater impact. I think too that if they do force an election, it will backfire because the people do not want one.. a great counter to the scandal. In addition the threat of gutting our national health, the threat of overturning supreme court decisions because they don't agree with Harper's religious views should be enough to counter any backlash on the scandal.. least that is the hope and I believe reality of it all.

If anything it could strengthen the NDP rather than the conservatives which isn't always a bad thing. A lot will depend on the campaign itself... unlike the USA where issues get tossed, our elections are more issue focused and again another reason why the Liberals seem to constantly hold power.

Also it is interesting to note, that while Martin has a minority government, history has shown that a lot does get done by minority governments. Canada brought in national health with a Pearson minority government, it also brought in major criminal reforms and even our own flag... all by a minority Liberal government...

Sorry if this sounds like a rant, but I really don't believe Stephen Harper can serioulyy achieve a majority in the next election... unless Martin totally fails to campaign which I suppose could happen. Harper is not liked and there is a bad taste here from within his own party as well... so again, it isn't a lock. Hell he had a 20 point lead going into the last election and didn't win it.. so at least up here, polls and all the hoopla before mean squat... its the campaign that counts... and so we'll see.

just my view point from the frozen tundra of canuck land.

Ian