I was going to post about this in Max's recent failing industry thread, but it goes along with the theme here too.

Adult social networking online is in it's infancy. There are adult versions of MySpace that are free, and most blog services already allow adult material. So I wouldn't be too high on these initial paid versions unless they have made interesting developments (which is highly unlikely).

One thing that needs to be said is that for every person doing "social networking" online hoping to meet up in real life, there are probably hundreds of people with no intent to ever meet who just want to look at people's photos and MAYBE chat with them online. And that's important to bring up because it's what separates personals sites from the new breed of social sites.

For years the old social services such as personals were a non-competing product. The fact is this sort of stuff has evolved into being the future of sex online, not traditional porn sites. I've been saying it for years. Once you give real people the power of production, their ability to share that with one another is something that will take a huge bite out of online porn sales.

The biggest online adult companies 10 years from now will be those who sell access to the technology that enables the cyber hookups and the exhibitionists to do their thing.