It's so hard to tell.

She won over the wingnut loser Fundy conservatives, the people that if they had their way would shovel all gay people into ovens and the same people who privately refer to Obama as a "spearchucker"... so what it really boils down to is:

-- how much the other lazy assed people who normally don't bother to vote actually get out and vote this year

-- How many of the hundreds of thousands of new registrants (college students, hispanics, african-americans, etc) actually get out and vote

-- How effective Karl Rove and his slime-laden brethren are at rigging voting machines, using sleazy tactics and other things to throw the election

-- How much the sensible people in America really realize the seriousness of the threat and motivate everyone.

The good news is, after her heavily rehearsed theatrical performance reading a script written by a Bush speechwriter for a male vice presidential candidate, a lot of sensible people were suddenly motivated to contribute to Obama, I heard they brought in over 8 million bucks in the last 24 hours from 150,000 donors.

What I *don't* get is why ANYONE thinks that this speech was a "slam dunk" when all she did was read a Teleprompter without making any significant mistakes. I know a lot of people -- including some of our 19 year old twink models -- who could have done that just as well.